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EURUSD - Only the Bottom of the Kumo
As stated last week;

The pair fell as expected to 1.3850 just 75pips above the weekly Kumo.  Although we feel the pair needs to correct a little bit, we ultimately feel any rallies are just opportunities to sell the pair higher.

Just as we wrote, the pair rallied to the big figure of 1.4000 and then dropped 350pips closed in the mid 1.36’s.  Posting its 4th weekly decline in a row, the pair only has the bottom of the Kumo to take out before a large drop should manifest.  Should we have a weekly close below the kumo, we are expecting a dive to the 1.2900 and longer term forecast could send the pair to 1.2400 by year end.  Outlook for the bulls on the EURUSD do not look good as the last bastion of Ichimoku support is the bottom of the kumo and beyond that the atmosphere is thin.

GBPUSD - Look out below…
Posting its largest weekly decline since sept. last year, the pair did two things which added to the bearish taste for the pair; 1) closed below the kumo for the first time in 6mos and 2) crashed below the major support at 1.5700 which was the last double bottom support for this pair in the last 10mos.  Ichimoku analysis suggests unless a rally happens in the next month or so, this pair could easily be headed for 1.4900 with 2nd targets at 1.4500 and possibly a full reversal of the 09′gains back to 1.3500.  Look out below as there is not much to help this pair.

AUDUSD - Cuidado as we are below the Kijun
For the first time since March of last year, we had our 1st weekly close below the Kijun.  We expect this along with the 20ema and Tenkan now to act as strong resistance so the line of least resistance has clearly formed to the downside and the bearish prospects have become attractive - especially with the RBA not raising rates last month and further concerns about inflation and a weakening labor market.  The kumo does not come in till about 8000 so there is plenty of room for this pair to drop.  Any rallies to the Kijun are likely good selling opportunities.

USDCAD - Working hard for its money
One of the few USD pairs having to work hard for its money, this pair had a doji week but nevertheless closed above the kijun and 20ema.  This week it used it as support and should it have a weekly close above 1.0800, we feel the pair could likely be headed towards 1.1250 which is where the Senkou Span A comes in (kumo bottom).  At that point it will have to work hard for its gains but for now, outlook is good for USDCAD bulls and as long as the dips are corrective in nature, the 20ema should hold as support for a good long base to form.

NZDUSD - Likely first to the weekly Kumo
With its 5th weekly down close and now 2nd below the Kijun, the pair is likely headed for further losses towards 6500 as it spiked up to the Kijun only to get smacked back down 300pips lower.  The 20ema has now gotten below the Tenkan and Kijun so this should reject any upside plays.  The line of least resistance is clearly to the downside and we would not feel good about buying this pair anytime soon.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Support Falling
As we wrote last week in our Ichimoku Report:
the pair will either maintain its corrective mode or start a strong sell-off towards the kumo top which has already fallen to 1.3760/80 level and will remain there till the end of Feb.

and

the line of least resistance will remain to the downside until 1.3760/80 level or until after feb. 26th when the Kumo starts to climb and build a good base of support for months to come.

This is essentially exactly what has happened to the pair with it attempting a comeback only to get slammed by the weekly Kijun.  The formation of this weekly candle and the strong rejection suggest the line of least resistance is clearly to the downside and any upside moves will have to contend with the Kijun and 20ema.

However, the Kumo paints the other side of the picture as its falling further and cannot offer any relief aid to the pair at least until the end of Feb. where it starts to pick up again.  It should be noted the Kumo does not come in as potential support until 1.3800 so this should bode well for the USD in the next month or so.  A break beyond 1.4185 suggest 1.4000 and 1.3800 will likely come under attack.

GBPUSD - Caught in a No-Fly Zone
An absolute mess of a pair trolling around the price levels like it has had one too many pints at the pub, the pair is caught in a completely inconsistent range and pattern which has formed a triangle within a triangle.  These patterns are absolute drubbish from a position perspective and we suggest only taking intraday positions as any position held over a day or so is likely to reverse.

The pair is caught in the bermuda triangle Kumo which is tailing off, getting smaller, and turning into a cone of sorts which then flips in mid-March.  Overall, this type of Kumo formation suggests extreme caution and not to take heavy positions as the complex Kumo pattern combined with the flat lines all suggest the pair is not going anywhere soon.  The only reason why its been climbing a tad as of late is the EURGBP sales which have been benefiting the GBP in the last two weeks.  Support or Resistance is neither here nor there and only the wide range top of 1.6850 and the far away bottom at 1.5700 have any major attraction to institutionals.

AUDUSD - Just Shy of the Double Top
Coming close but not taking home the cigar, the pair came about 100pips shy from the 09′ highs just piercing the 9300 barrier only to end the week in a sell-0ff.  The pair last bounced off the 20ema which launched the pair 600 pips and now that the pair has failed at the top, should it post another weekly decline, we expect a 2nd test of the 20ema which we feel will be the most important one.  The Tenkan is currently falling suggesting momentum is waning for this current upmove and since longs cannot add positions until a 09′ high break or another touch on the 20ema, we feel the pair will likely drift sideways or fall heavily to the 20ema but we do not expect massive buying to come in at this level so the short term outlook is at best neutral but more likely to the downside since bulls likely have lost a little confidence with the 2nd failed attempt to make a new high and are likely trimming some positions.

Overall, the larger uptrend structure is still in tact and the 20ema and Kijun offer nice levels to consider buying this pair if you are not already long.  If you want to go short, it would be best to wait for a dip to the 20ema where positions will reset a bit, then sell between 9300-9400 for another move back down.  Overall, shorts have a short term slight edge in this tug of war.

USDCAD - The Truth Coming Soon
Its first attempt to break the 09′ lows at 1.0200 failed with the pair just coming within reach of it only to bounce.  It then formed a higher low last week about 45pips from the 09′ low and has since bounced a tad.  Last weeks candle has wicks on both sides of the market and the CAD Interest Rate Decision with the revisions to the GDP should be the main trigger which either causes a nice bounce in the pair or sends the pair reeling past the 09′ lows.  Its kind of do-or-die for the bulls to mount any offense here and with the 20ema and Kijun falling, any rallies should get stymied.  Bears have two options while bulls have one with potential risky buys off the 1.0200 level an option for the horns to have their play while the bears can wait for a weekly close below 1.0200 or another attempt towards the 20ema selling just shy of the line and targeting the 1.0200 level.  Either way, the truth should be coming soon.

NZDUSD - 20EMA test Likely
After two straight impulsive bullish weeks for the pair to end 09 and start 2010, the pair has stuttered a bit well shy of the 09′ highs.  It should be noted the sell-off was mild at best and barely sparked heavy interest.  With the momentum and Tenkan declining, along with the recent successful test of the 20ema, we feel a 2nd one is in order as the pair is probably suffering from the solid USD gains against the other pairs.  The picture on the Kiwi is too similar to the Aussie as no real buyers will come in until the 20ema while sellers want a higher price.  Because the pair was that much farther away from the 09′ highs, we feel this is why last weeks price action was super mild as it could not garner any interest from both sides of the aisle.  Mild buys at the 20ema are the only real play for the moment and until we see how the pair reacts to it, we will not have much of a direction on display so tread lightly.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD
The armor has been dented.  The first signs of damage to the upward assault have been marked on the shield and the first wound delivered.  Why?

Since the pair broke above the weekly 20ema and the Kumo, there has not been one weekly loss this heavy on a closing basis.  On top of that, in the last 33 weeks, we’ve only had two other closes (on a weekly basis) this strong or more.  On top of this, in comparison to the other two candles of this magnitude, this one opened closer to its high and closed closer to its low so the selling pressure this week was most consistent.

Does this mean I want to be short EURUSD yet?  Not necessarily.  Being long USD is not my favorite prospect at the moment and needs more confirmation.  Am I open to being short now?  Yes, with more confirmation since the armor has been weakened.

Some options for shorting would either be towards the previous yearly highs or on a weekly close below the Tenkan (has not happened in 27 weeks).  Options for going long would be on a bounce off the weekly Tenkan or on the 20ema.

Overall Kumo structure suggests medium to long term the trend should remain up.  But there the price action suggests a short term correction could be underway.  Be warned as overall prospects for being bullish are not as golden as they were before.

GBPUSD
The picture for this pair did not get any clearer after last weeks close.  If anything, it made it more annoying as it posted an inside week.  The good thing about this is probabilities suggest this week will be an outside one.  Themalo thing about this is the direction of which the break will occur is less clear from the price action.  The Tenkan, 20ema and Kijun are coming closer suggesting decision has yet ot really manifest itself so building heavy positions is not recommended until we have a solid break, particularly above 1.6750ish or below 1.6200.

Price is still inside the kumo and if we do not get a close outside of it on either side by year end, the beginning of the next year should get messy till early summer.  Overall, until a break of the aforementioned levels, we recommend shorter day trades on this while not holding any positions beyond an intraday session.

AUDUSD
The outlook on this pair is similar than the EURUSD except the pair had its strongest open-close loss in the last 33 weeks so the stakes areup’d a bit.  The pair has found buyers at the weekly Tenkan so this should inspire bulls for now.  Pero, another failure at the yearly top made two weeks ago, or at a fib level from that top (.9326) to the current tenkan reading would strengthen the bears claws.

Our strategy for this is the same as the EURUSD on both sides of the market along with the overall medium/longer term outlook.  The only thing which would change our long term view would be a weekly close below theKumo but we place this at about a <20% chance of happening and feel overall any strong dips are opportunities to buy AUDUSD for another run up to an eventual parity which we feel will happen in 1st or 2nd Q of 2010 since the overall weekly kumo is building over time.

USDCAD
Producing back to back weekly gains - something it has done only 3x in the last 34 weeks the next test for the bulls is the weekly 20ema, an entity which strongly rejected it the last time.  The difference this time is a major fib for the swing move down from 1.3000 was right there at the 20ema when it happened.  On top of this, the weekly advance prior to attacking the 20ema the last time was smaller in nature than the current week that just closed suggesting there is more power behind this move than the last.  This is also represented mathematically in the last major attack on the 20ema was 580pips over 4weeks while this last advance was roughly 580 pips over two weeks - an important fact to be considered.

One other important note was the kumo wherein last time it was much thicker and in the zone of the 20ema whereas now its further away from price (less of a threat) and thinner in nature so a reversal is much more likely to happen now than ever.  If it does not break the kumo to the upside between now and end of March next year, chances for bulls to establish control weaken.

NZDUSD
The funny thing about last week was that the pairs that were doing the best against the USD suffered the most while the pairs doing the worst endured the least amount of torture.  Not really funny as it makes sense from an order flow perspective, pero - the kiwi really took one on the chin uppercut style.  In fact, it was the only trending pair which closed below the weekly tenkan which is the most damaging to the bulls technically.  So far, the pair has now treated the tenkan as resistance while making modest gains.  If the current model plays itself out with the pairs that had done the best against the USD are now going to fare the worst, the kiwi is in for a larger fall.

Downside tests are the 20ema, something not seen since the first week in may so any test if this should be very interesting with a close below likely resulting in a drastic and quick fall to the kijun causing a technical event to force bulls to exit most of their positions.  Overall, we feel the medium to longer term bullish structure is in place as the kumo is lo mismo to the AUDUSD and supports an upside advance as long as no weekly close below the kumo happens between now and early March 2010.  Dips that travel to the south will likely return north for an attack upon 82 cents (the high from 2008).

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD
Since its weekly close above the 20ema in early May 09′ and the Kumo break later that month, the pair has yet to post two weekly closes back to back.  In fact, out of 28 weeks, the pair has only closed down 10 posting a 65% weekly up close for the last 6months.  Currently its riding a 3 week wave of higher closes and our analysis points to a higher close.

The pair is showing more comfort everyday above the 1.5000 handle which is very different than when it attempted to wear the clothes of 1.60 more comfortable only lasting a day above and then getting slammed the following.  We feel the more time above 1.5000, the more the market will realize its ok there and will start to make a base there for a launch higher.

Kumo analysis says unless there is an apocalyptic drop from here, the base above 1.36 and 1.40 is in place and the pair will likely use any dips there to launch another attack on 1.50 and 1.60.  The three amigos (Tenkan / 20ema / Kijun) are all in order and pretty much climbing so should support on any dips.  Price has not closed below the Tenkan since late April and has used it as a springboard for more buying and higher prices.  A break here may make the bulls question their long positions but a 20ema would be more convincing and possibly create a technical event to sell.  However, we feel this is unlikely and people will overall want to be buying Euros of Greenbacks.

GBPUSD
Starting off last week like a champ, the pair was threatening to close above the 1.6650 area and gain 300pips on the week which would have been impressive.  However the pair had to take some bad news on the chin and in the gut when GDP was announced as a contraction with 30+bloomberg analysts all calling for a .2% increase.  Traders dumped pounds by the kilos as the pair reacted as badly to the news as someone getting bitten by a Black Mamba snake while opening a letter from the IRS saying their being audited - in other words, the pair suffered badly.  Dropping almost 2cents in a matter of an hour, the pair ended the week closing down instead of up and all the efforts by the bulls were annihilated.

We think this will create either two likely scenarios;
A) traders will have digested the news and overall feel better about being long the GBP than the USD

or

B) the stink from the dreaded GDP numbers will be too much to not notice in the room and traders will not be really interested in being long GBP so may pile into EUR/GBP longs or just sell GBP’s as a whole.  We are more in the latter camp if the pair does not come out of the gate this week with a stiff jab, strong right cross followed by an uppercut that lands on the chin.

Technically the pair does have some strong support (not from price) but moreso from the 20ema and the Tenkan which are flat and below.  This could be a technical reason for traders to get long and would be a good pricing with the Kijun climbing wanting to come to the party. Any close below the 20ema will likely erode the confidence of bulls and likely see a fair amount of longs exit sending hte pari back to 1.60 and below to test the support in the 1.58/59 region.  Caution advised on building heavy longs.

AUDUSD
Still climbing, still gaining week after week, the pair continues to post gains albeit small ones.  With only 4 out of the last 12 weekly gains only being at or outside the weekly ATR, it appears as if only heavy longs are being added when the pair finds itself near the weekly Tenkan or daily 20ema.  Other than that, we feel its simply momentum, combined with the fact nobody really wants to be long USD vs. AUD and that AUD is likely in an increasing rate cycle the pair is marching on.  We feel the march will go on but that 95 or perhaps parity could be what Russia was to Napoleon - too far an advance without the supplies to support the troop effort.

Based on the pattern, we prefer only buying on a dip early in the week or after a weekly close down (as long as its not drastic or outside the weekly ATR).  The pair has shown an affinity to dip each week only to end up closing higher with only 7 weekly closes down since breaking above the kumo while only 5 out of 14 up closes did not have a dip at least 1/3 into the previous weekly range.

USDCAD
Posting its 1st weekly close outside of the previous weeks range for the first time in over two months, the pair looks set to test the weekly Tenkan where a close above will likely give it enough lift to attack the 20ema, something that has not been touched since the beginning of July.  All three amigos (Tenkan/20ema/Kijun) which will make any upside surges pass some tests before convincing traders the pair is going long.  Overall though the short term lift off the lows this year appear to be for real as we have good momentum divergence coming into the bounce.  Another weekly close up, especially outside of the previous weeks range would suggest the bounce is for real and the 20ema is next up to bat for the longer term bears.

Anyone wanting to go long could trade a break outside last weeks high or take a 61.8% dip of the previous weekly range which is right about the open for the last week.

NZDUSD
Under appreciated by the news and analysts across the board, the Kiwi has been more stable against the greenback than any other pair out there, even the more popular AUD with its fancy rate increase.  Still only having 1 weekly close down since the Kumo break, the pair is posting smaller retracements and larger gains in relationship to the ATR than its big brother AUD.

The pair breezed through the 61.8% & 78.6% fibs of the 2008 drop and momentum is still hanging around the upper regions so we feel the pair will likely gain this week.  Upper resistance levels to watch are last weeks high around .7645 and .7900.  After that, we feel .8000 will be under serious threat if the garrison of spears and shields waiting for them there are breached.  Beyond that, there is not much left except the 2008 highs just above .8200 so bears are running out of real-estate to hold their ground.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

For the first time in a long time the USDCAD is about to do the following;

1) close above the previous weeks high (last time was early August 09′)
2) have a daily close above the Tenkan line (daily chart - last time was Oct. 1st 09′)
3) close inside the kumo on the 4hr chart (last time was Oct. 4th)

All of this is happening today and with a vengeance.  Why do I use such strong language? Because its the most recent price action, particularly the last 4hr candle which is the cause of all this.  This is the single largest top-bottom 4hr candle in the last 90days so it stands out in my book.  Anything that happens once in every 90days stands out in my book (particularly meeting with my accountant to do the quarterly taxes - again an event which happens only once in every 90days).

Thus, in the short term, this is one of the hottest seats at the Blackjack table.

Starting at the weekly chart, you can see the pair is really threatening to post a close above the previous weekly high for the first time in a few months, but what is more interesting is the price action causing this.  Last week the pair attempted to form a bottom at 1.0200.  This week, in attempting to re-visit that bottom, we fell way short and formed a higher high.  The current candle is above the previous weeks high with two strong wicks to the downside suggesting the rejection zone could be the real McCoy.  If we get continued follow up buying this week, we could also be creating another reversal candle such as a morning star formation - all supporting the same look - the short term bullish outlook.

Moving down to the Daily charts, the pair is also threatening to close above the Tenkan line for the first time this month.  On top of that, its in the same day pushing up against the 20ema.  This candle would support the overall short term bullish structure and simply confirm the 1.0200 bottom is not wearing a bullish costume but charging down the streets of Pamplona, Span in July looking to put its horns into some person running with more adrenaline than a 1st time Sky Driver who is afraid of heights and has no life insurance plan.  On top of that, the upcoming Kumo is rather anemic suggesting there is a window opening for the bulls to push past the Kumo resistance giving them more ground to trample on.

Lastly, on the 4hr chart, we have the 1st close inside the Kumo.  Notice how price has been below it since the 1.0800 level and most of its time being enlisted below the 20ema and Kijun.  This long term pattern has just been interrupted by the most recent 4hr candle which has taken out all of them and ventured into the Kumo.  This further confirms the bulls short term efforts and with the two white lines (acting like field goal posts) present an area where price is most likely to break which could represent a trend change.  However, the fact the Kumo is declining during that stretch is not a good sign because it would mean the support of the Kumo is falling thus bringing the floor lower instead of rising (which is what we want in an upward break).  Thus, any kumo breaks in this region should be treated with caution because they may want to gravitate towards the flat top ahead.  We feel this would be a much better region to enter longs as it happens to coincide with a role reversal level and previous ceiling for the pair.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD

Threatening to take out the 2009 highs (only 3 weeks ago so not that dramatic), the EURUSD is nothing but bullish as it remains above the Tenkan and has not posted a close below the line on the weekly charts since late April this year. The only way you do that is with continual steady buying for the pair. Dips have been minor and the bears have at best posted two weeks of declines in a row while bulls have been winning the fight once it cleared the Kumo. The challenging part about this pair is on a weekly basis, there are wicks on both sides of the fence so dips and rejections are all over the place. Anyone holding the pair more than a day is likely to get whipsawed so for medium term swing players, buying on a dip during the week or for sellers, selling on a rejection is your best bet however with the overall play above the Tenkan line being so consistent, bears have probably been vomiting losses like the girl in exorcist (the original) so unless you got the stomach for it (or vomiting losses), we suggest buying.

If the technical tooth fairy comes, then a dip or pong off the Tenkan is the play. Breaks have only worked out 2 weeks out of the last 24 so the Vegas odds are not in your favor buying breaks.

GBPUSD
Selling off for the last 4 weeks on a closing basis, again more downside is envisioned (without the use of a crystal ball) should the pair break the weekly Kijun (red line). If that happens, we expect technical selling on the pair to increase and like selling off the 20ema as a rejection play (weekly chart).

As time goes on, the GBPUSD is getting replaced by the EURUSD 2.0 which is outpacing it in beating up the USD. In fact, the GBP and USD are in an almost deadlock as to who is going to win this contest of horns. Ultimately, we do not favor the USD against much, except perhaps the Iraqi Dinar and the Indian Rupee for the rest of this year, but I digress.

Getting back to the Ichimoku, the lines are becoming more flat and compressed but still sloping downward showing the pressure to the downside has not abated. The flat Kumo top could act as the rear guard for this pair should it break the 20ema and Tenkan to the upside. Another failed attempt here would intimate the pair will likely head back down and stay inside the cloud for the remainder of the year. The Kumo has a thick hide so should a break and close occur on either side, we expect the following move to be strong.

Based on this kumo formation, we would be surprised if the pair breaks the 1.6850 (kumo top) to 1.45 range for the rest of the year. If I were a betting man (only am in Vegas - blackjack or roulette), then I’d lay more chips on this pair breaking the lower belly of the kumo. Regardless, for this week you have the key levels to watch.

AUDUSD
A simpleton these days, the AUDUSD has been relentless in its attack on the greenback climbing 15 of the last 23 weeks (65.7% kill ratio) and only posting one close below the Tenkan in the same amount of time. Anyone looking to sell this pair at any time soon should be questioned to see if they recently suffered any head trauma or were hit by a truck. The pair has only mounted a total of 8 selling weeks since the uptrend started back in march (32weeks ago) and has climbed for a consecutive 8.5months (including this month). How could you not be making money on this trend?

Since we have quickly concluded with any selling notions, the question comes as to where/how to buy into this trend. Options:

1) dips to the 20ema (daily chart)

2) touch of the tenkan (weekly chart)

3) any weekly retracement to the 38.2% or 50% fibs of the prior weeks price action with stops below the previous weekly lows (a strategy that has worked 9 out of 11x)

Kumo formations like this suggest continued uptrend and likely for the rest of the year.

As long as the tenkan/20ema/kijun lines hold this relative structure, the AUD will keep punishing the USD. Add in the surprise rate hike by the RBA and you have all the spices for more upside.

USDCAD
Finally doing something interesting, the pair broke below the slow downward dribble it was in and in one week, posted its largest open/close drop since July while taking out barriers at 1.0500. Although the Momentum is wanting to disagree with this downtrend, we do not see much reprieve for bulls until a close above the 20ema (weekly charts) prints. In fact, any attacks at the 20ema (as long as they are engulfing the previous candle) could be treated as a rejection play for more downside.

The kumo is sloping downward at an aggressive angle and unless this pair starts to ravage the upside (which we put those odds around the same as getting hit by lightning twice, or the Chicago Cubs winning a World Series in the next 3 years – no offense to Cubs fans, I’m from Chicago and would love them to win, just being realistic), then the pair should likely close below 1.1500 for the year and the 1Q outlook for this pair suggests bulls will have a tough time making any headway until mid 2010.

Riddle me this: Which pair has climbed for the last 12 out of 13 weeks against the USD?
If you answered with an Antipodean pair like the NZDUSD, you guessed right. Yep, 12 out of 13 weeks. Not even Tiger Woods has won that many tournaments in a row. Under the radar while the AUDUSD has been making all the headlines, this pair has posted an impressive 25 out of 33 weekly up-closes and only lost ground 4 weeks in the last 20. The trend is so strong it cannot even touch its twinkle-toes on the Tenkan line. In fact, it has not touched it since July 17^th (ironically my birthday) which is awefully impressive. Unless someone comes in with a Trump size account, we could not be paid to sell this pair for any ransom.

This is one of the few pairs where buying on breaks has worked out as long as you can hold till the end of the week. Buying on the weekly open has also worked well (remember the 12/13 stat?) but small to medium retracements have been offered every week save 2 in the last 13 so we’ll look for the dip as a buying opportunity. Unless this pair runs into King Leonidus and the Spartans at Thermopylae, this trend should continue rolling.

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Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

In case you were kidnapped, heavily inebriated or on prescription drugs for the last, oh say 33 weeks, the AUDUSD has been in an uptrend.  On top of that, they recently did something no other central bank has done lately - raise their interest rates.  This has separated them from the rest of them and added nitro to the trend.  But, the question has to be asked, is there more to this uptrend?  If so, should be buying into the rest of the week now that we have hit hump day?

Statistically speaking - No!

Lets get into the numbers which suggest why we should not be buying.

Since March 6th of this year, the pair has had 31 weeks of price action behind it

7 losers

24 winners

Do we want to be buying as our general approach to the AUDUSD?
Verdict = Yes

Average weekly range (high to low) for those 31 weeks = 341pips

High value = 452

Low value = 135

# of weeks it has closed above the 341 avg. = 20 (65%)
Current weekly range = 314pips

Difference to the avg. = 27pips

Difference to the High = 138pips
Thus, if we were to this week hit or equal the weekly high, there is a potential for 138pips of profit…not bad, but downside risk is well over 200pips.

What is more interesting is how price has been behaving as of late.  Thus, we present exhibit A which is the weekly chart on the AUDUSD

Notice how the pair has behaved in the beginning of the uptrend.  The candles were closer towards the highs and much larger in high/low range.
However as of late, the closes have been much closer to the opens with the open/close gains being smaller (current week excluded).  Also, there are

wicks or retracements on every single week (except one on sept. 11th week) since the week ending July 31st (over 9 weeks ago).  Thus, statistically,

88% of the time the pair has retraced on any given week suggesting waiting for a pullback before entering has been the way to play.

Now take a look at exhibit B, a graphical representation of how many pips the pair has averaged (weekly basis) outside or above the 341pip avg. and how much below.

The weeks of the trend are from left to right with week 1 being March 6th.  The numbers on the y-axis represent in 10s of pips (.001 = 10 pips) how many pips the

week was able to post above the the statistical average.

Notice in the beginning of the chart, the line is above 0, showing the pair was producing weekly ranges .002 (20pips) outside the weekly average range from high to low.

Not surprising as the trend has some good power once it clears the weekly 20ema.  However, notice how the line falls off and on a week to week basis, the ranges have been getting

smaller suggesting the trend is losing steam.  Not necessarily that its changing, but just that we should expect to make less on a weekly basis out of the pair, particularly on an open to

closing basis.  Important to know.

Thus, considering that only out of 24 positive weekly closes, none of them since July 17th have closed above the weekly average (341pips) and the current week has already moved 314pips,

do we really want to be adding on large positions around the current levels on the AUDUSD?

Verdict = No

Solution = statistics say wait for a pullback before buying.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

For the first time since mid August of this year, the EURGBP is showing a possible pullback as its batman like bulletproof armor bull-run may have taken too many straight shots in the chest to keep plugging away.  Keep in mind this is only the third time this pair has climbed 800+pips in sub 60days over the last 3 years.

This pair has really benefited not so much from EURO strength, but moreso the Pounds masochistic desire to be sold into oblivion.  The plague probably had more friends back in the day then the GBP currently does in its native country.  The most likely scenario has been a Quinella of GBP weakness and seriously interested EURGBP longs.

However this trend current upmove cannot go ad infinitum, very much like Michael Jordon could not play basketball forever (something this trader is somewhat sad about).  Be that as it may, finding good pullbacks has been like a first time chopstick user trying to get the last few grains of rice in the sushi bowl (forgive the sushi reference, my dinner arrived while I started writing this article) - tis not an easy thing to do.

Looking at the chart below, the last pause (last three red candles on chart below) was a pretty recognizable pullback-continuation scenario as the follow up blue candle obliterated the last three amigos and handsomely breezing past the 61.8% fib of the 9500 - 8400 downmove.  However this last daily candle is most intriguing as the wick and failure to the topside is as large as the entire previous pullback.  Buying anywhere in between the close of that candle and the top would be a highly risky move, so it begs the question of buy on break or wait for a dip?  Although trading breaks has worked out quite well in this current trend, the previous ones looked more like a 3rd-and-1 while the current one looks like a 4th-and-4 (not as inspiring).

Thus, this trader would be in favor of punting and waiting for a pullback toward the previous 61.8%fib which proved a moderate resistance before holding for 3 days.  Alternative plays would be 9000 (where the last pullback held) or to a 20EMA touch (has not been broken since mid-august).

Some clues as to whether these will hold could come from the GBPUSD and if it can actually muster some upside going unnoticed by the EURUSD having a picnic at the local plaza.  However, the manner in which the EURGBP sells off (if it does) would be the best clues.  A violent sell off or any brutality shown towards the current medium/long term bulls today or tomorrow could be an indication the first defenses may not hold, thus requiring the 20ema or Kijun to come into play.  A close below all three of the lines would suggest the party is over for now and to wait till the 8830 level before re-building longs.  Either way, the test for the current bulls should be made clear in the next two days but medium to long term, we favor being long EUR over GBP for an eventual test of 9500.  The only thing which would negate this view for us would be weekly close below the 8700-8650 support zone.  One alternate scenario which would negate the bullish view would be a daily close below the Kumo.  Until then,  we feel any playful dips are really the bulls working on a fresh coat of paint for the coming winter and anyone putting on heavy shorts would be suspect of gargling with hydrochloric acid.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com